NBC orders "Police," more "ER" episodes

[David]

from the hollywood reporter

More John Wells at NBC
Episodic orders for 'ER,' 'Police'
By Nellie Andreeva

It will be a longer goodbye for NBC's veteran medical drama "ER,"
whose final 15th season has been extended by three additional
episodes.

As part of NBC's deal with producer Warner Bros. TV and "ER" executive
producer John Wells, NBC also has ordered six episodes from the Wells-
produced new cop drama "Police."

NBC and Warner Bros. had been in intense negotiations over the past
few weeks for a "Police" series pickup.

The network had been asking for a 12-episode midseason order, while
WBTV had been reluctant to deficit such a large order in light of
NBC's recent decision to launch a Jay Leno-fronted talk show in the 10
p.m. hour next fall, which would limit the network's needs for drama
series.

Meanwhile, NBC, WBTV and Wells had also been talking about adding
additional three episodes to the 19-hour final season of "ER," which
has performed in the fall, regularly winning its Thursday 10 p.m.
slot.

It is not clear how the extended season of "ER" will affect new drama
"Kings," which was slated to air in the slot following the "ER" series
finale March 12.

It's possible for "Police" to succeed "ER" Thursdays at 10 p.m. as it
was originally envisioned and for "Kings" to move to another night.

[Lord Vader III]

Post by David
from the hollywood reporter
More John Wells at NBC
Episodic orders for 'ER,' 'Police'
By Nellie Andreeva
It will be a longer goodbye for NBC's veteran medical drama "ER,"
whose final 15th season has been extended by three additional
episodes.
As part of NBC's deal with producer Warner Bros. TV and "ER" executive
producer John Wells, NBC also has ordered six episodes from the Wells-
produced new cop drama "Police."
NBC and Warner Bros. had been in intense negotiations over the past
few weeks for a "Police" series pickup.
The network had been asking for a 12-episode midseason order, while
WBTV had been reluctant to deficit such a large order in light of
NBC's recent decision to launch a Jay Leno-fronted talk show in the 10
p.m. hour next fall, which would limit the network's needs for drama
series.
Meanwhile, NBC, WBTV and Wells had also been talking about adding
additional three episodes to the 19-hour final season of "ER," which
has performed in the fall, regularly winning its Thursday 10 p.m.
slot.
It is not clear how the extended season of "ER" will affect new drama
"Kings," which was slated to air in the slot following the "ER" series
finale March 12.
It's possible for "Police" to succeed "ER" Thursdays at 10 p.m. as it
was originally envisioned and for "Kings" to move to another night.

I'm really not surprised at all about the ER announcement. There's no
reason for NBC to take if off the air in March (I think that's when
the last episode was scheduled). I wouldn't even be surprised to see
more episodes get ordered before its over. Hell, before NBC announced
Leno at 10pm next season, I was wondering how long it was going to
take NBC to throw a shitload of money at Wells to bring ER back for at
least a shortened 16th season.

LVIII

[Obveeus]

Post by Lord Vader III
I'm really not surprised at all about the ER announcement. There's no
reason for NBC to take if off the air in March (I think that's when
the last episode was scheduled). I wouldn't even be surprised to see
more episodes get ordered before its over. Hell, before NBC announced
Leno at 10pm next season, I was wondering how long it was going to
take NBC to throw a shitload of money at Wells to bring ER back for at
least a shortened 16th season.

That 10pm Leno project is a real issue. With that being NBC's future, there
is almost zero incentive for any studio to develop a new 'adult scripted
drama' for NBC.

[David]

I'm really not surprised at all about the ER announcement.  There's no
reason for NBC to take if off the air in March (I think that's when
the last episode was scheduled).  I wouldn't even be surprised to see
more episodes get ordered before its over.  Hell, before NBC announced
Leno at 10pm next season, I was wondering how long it was going to
take NBC to throw a shitload of money at Wells to bring ER back for at
least a shortened 16th season.

That 10pm Leno project is a real issue.  With that being NBC's future, there
is almost zero incentive for any studio to develop a new 'adult scripted
drama' for NBC.

FOX has done okay putting "adult" shows at 9. Or even 8.

[Obveeus]

Post by David

I'm really not surprised at all about the ER announcement. There's no
reason for NBC to take if off the air in March (I think that's when
the last episode was scheduled). I wouldn't even be surprised to see
more episodes get ordered before its over. Hell, before NBC announced
Leno at 10pm next season, I was wondering how long it was going to
take NBC to throw a shitload of money at Wells to bring ER back for at
least a shortened 16th season.

That 10pm Leno project is a real issue. With that being NBC's future,
there
is almost zero incentive for any studio to develop a new 'adult scripted
drama' for NBC.

FOX has done okay putting "adult" shows at 9. Or even 8.

NBC already has a bunch of shows, though. They are downsizing 5 hours per
week (all in that 10pm hour). It would be rather foolish to believe that NBC
is going to scrap their cheap reality (like Biggest loser) just so they can
fit in a maybe pipe dream show like Kings.

[David]

Post by David

I'm really not surprised at all about the ER announcement. There's no
reason for NBC to take if off the air in March (I think that's when
the last episode was scheduled). I wouldn't even be surprised to see
more episodes get ordered before its over. Hell, before NBC announced
Leno at 10pm next season, I was wondering how long it was going to
take NBC to throw a shitload of money at Wells to bring ER back for at
least a shortened 16th season.

That 10pm Leno project is a real issue. With that being NBC's future,
there
is almost zero incentive for any studio to develop a new 'adult scripted
drama' for NBC.

FOX has done okay putting "adult" shows at 9. Or even 8.

NBC already has a bunch of shows, though.  They are downsizing 5 hours per
week (all in that 10pm hour). It would be rather foolish to believe that NBC
is going to scrap their cheap reality (like Biggest loser) just so they can
fit in a maybe pipe dream show like Kings.

They'll probably scrap the least-profitable 33% of everything
regardless of the genre. "Biggest Loser" and "Apprentice" will survive
but the "Momma's Boys" of the world won't be there to take space away
dramas. It'll be a compact schedule with less throwaway filler just to
fill gaps.

[WQ]

Post by David

Post by David

I'm really not surprised at all about the ER announcement. There's no
reason for NBC to take if off the air in March (I think that's when
the last episode was scheduled). I wouldn't even be surprised to see
more episodes get ordered before its over. Hell, before NBC announced
Leno at 10pm next season, I was wondering how long it was going to
take NBC to throw a shitload of money at Wells to bring ER back for at
least a shortened 16th season.

That 10pm Leno project is a real issue. With that being NBC's future,
there
is almost zero incentive for any studio to develop a new 'adult scripted
drama' for NBC.

FOX has done okay putting "adult" shows at 9. Or even 8.

NBC already has a bunch of shows, though.  They are downsizing 5 hours per
week (all in that 10pm hour). It would be rather foolish to believe that NBC
is going to scrap their cheap reality (like Biggest loser) just so they can
fit in a maybe pipe dream show like Kings.

They'll probably scrap the least-profitable 33% of everything
regardless of the genre. "Biggest Loser" and "Apprentice" will survive
but the "Momma's Boys" of the world won't be there to take space away
dramas. It'll be a compact schedule with less throwaway filler just to
fill gaps.

--- And all thoroughly unwatchable.

[Obveeus]

Post by David

NBC already has a bunch of shows, though. They are downsizing 5 hours per
week (all in that 10pm hour). It would be rather foolish to believe that NBC
is going to scrap their cheap reality (like Biggest loser) just so they can
fit in a maybe pipe dream show like Kings.

They'll probably scrap the least-profitable 33% of everything
regardless of the genre. "Biggest Loser" and "Apprentice" will survive
but the "Momma's Boys" of the world won't be there to take space away
dramas. It'll be a compact schedule with less throwaway filler just to
fill gaps.

Feel free to look over the NBC schedule and look at the shows that will be
'least profitable'. It is a pretty safe bet that Kings and Police are
already on that list. NBC will fill their 13 hours of programming per week
(Saturday will likely still be the same junk/encores as the last few years)
with stuff like Biggest Loser(2), Celebrity Apprentice(2), Dateline(1-2),
Football(Sunday), at least 2 Thursday sitcoms(1), Deal or No Deal(2), likely
both of the L&O series(2),...sheesh, that is 13 hours right there and we
haven't even added in shows like Medium and Heroes.

I maintain that it is a big waste of time for any studio to try and develop
new scripted product for NBC for next season. It is far more logical to
shop it somewhere else and wait until the 'new NBC' is going to need
anything to replace a failed Leno...or not need anything for the forseeable
future because they have downsized the network to reality/variety/gameshow.

[WQ]

Post by Obveeus

Post by David

NBC already has a bunch of shows, though. They are downsizing 5 hours per
week (all in that 10pm hour). It would be rather foolish to believe that NBC
is going to scrap their cheap reality (like Biggest loser) just so they can
fit in a maybe pipe dream show like Kings.

They'll probably scrap the least-profitable 33% of everything
regardless of the genre. "Biggest Loser" and "Apprentice" will survive
but the "Momma's Boys" of the world won't be there to take space away
dramas. It'll be a compact schedule with less throwaway filler just to
fill gaps.

Feel free to look over the NBC schedule and look at the shows that will be
'least profitable'.  It is a pretty safe bet that Kings and Police are
already on that list.  NBC will fill their 13 hours of programming per week
(Saturday will likely still be the same junk/encores as the last few years)
with stuff like Biggest Loser(2), Celebrity Apprentice(2), Dateline(1-2),
Football(Sunday), at least 2 Thursday sitcoms(1), Deal or No Deal(2), likely
both of the L&O series(2),...sheesh, that is 13 hours right there and we
haven't even added in shows like Medium and Heroes.
I maintain that it is a big waste of time for any studio to try and develop
new scripted product for NBC for next season.  It is far more logical to
shop it somewhere else and wait until the 'new NBC' is going to need
anything to replace a failed Leno...or not need anything for the forseeable
future because they have downsized the network to reality/variety/gameshow.

--- When you think about it, the network will be effectively down to
6-8 hours of original scripted shows out of 22 hours. Sunday will
have football, Saturday will have repeats, weeknights at 10 will go to
Leno, so that leaves weeknights 8-10 for scripted. But at least 2
hours, possibly up to 4, will go to unscripted shows, i.e. Biggest
Loser and maybe Superstars of Dance. Sheesh, 6-8 hours of scripted is
really down to the level of what CW is putting out now, which is 7.
And the way things are going for them, I think we already kind of know
where CW may be headed before the fall. It's truly remarkable what
Zucker's skills at underachieving can really accomplish for NBC.

[David]

Post by Obveeus

Post by David

NBC already has a bunch of shows, though. They are downsizing 5 hours per
week (all in that 10pm hour). It would be rather foolish to believe that NBC
is going to scrap their cheap reality (like Biggest loser) just so they can
fit in a maybe pipe dream show like Kings.

They'll probably scrap the least-profitable 33% of everything
regardless of the genre. "Biggest Loser" and "Apprentice" will survive
but the "Momma's Boys" of the world won't be there to take space away
dramas. It'll be a compact schedule with less throwaway filler just to
fill gaps.

Feel free to look over the NBC schedule and look at the shows that will be
'least profitable'.  It is a pretty safe bet that Kings and Police are
already on that list.  NBC will fill their 13 hours of programming per week
(Saturday will likely still be the same junk/encores as the last few years)
with stuff like Biggest Loser(2), Celebrity Apprentice(2), Dateline(1-2),
Football(Sunday), at least 2 Thursday sitcoms(1), Deal or No Deal(2), likely
both of the L&O series(2),...sheesh, that is 13 hours right there and we
haven't even added in shows like Medium and Heroes.

The only reality show I see them airing next year for sure is "Biggest
Loser." "Apprentice" maybe. "Superstars of Dance" too early to tell.
"Dateline" is a non-entity right now. "Deal" has low 18-49 numbers and
Universal is probably happy to keep it exclusive to daytime. What else
do you see taking away spots for scripted shows?

And the scripted shows I see coming back are Chuck, Heroes, the three
Law & Orders, and three of the Thursday comedies.

This is all moot anyway since we're looking at the schedule in 2-D
(Fall only), whereas NBC will probably have three or four different
schedules for the entire year. There'll be plenty of space for
everything.

Post by Obveeus
I maintain that it is a big waste of time for any studio to try and develop
new scripted product for NBC for next season.  It is far more logical to
shop it somewhere else and wait until the 'new NBC' is going to need
anything to replace a failed Leno...or not need anything for the forseeable
future because they have downsized the network to reality/variety/gameshow.

Studios haven't stopped developing shows for FOX (which was the
original point of all this). And with many shows going through several
pitches before finding a buyer, and other shows benefiting greatly
from 2- or 3-network bidding wars, it would be a foolish business
decision to exclude NBC.

Also, the financials are such that Leno can't possibly fail.

[WQ]

Post by David

Post by Obveeus

Post by David

NBC already has a bunch of shows, though. They are downsizing 5 hours per
week (all in that 10pm hour). It would be rather foolish to believe that NBC
is going to scrap their cheap reality (like Biggest loser) just so they can
fit in a maybe pipe dream show like Kings.

They'll probably scrap the least-profitable 33% of everything
regardless of the genre. "Biggest Loser" and "Apprentice" will survive
but the "Momma's Boys" of the world won't be there to take space away
dramas. It'll be a compact schedule with less throwaway filler just to
fill gaps.

Feel free to look over the NBC schedule and look at the shows that will be
'least profitable'.  It is a pretty safe bet that Kings and Police are
already on that list.  NBC will fill their 13 hours of programming per week
(Saturday will likely still be the same junk/encores as the last few years)
with stuff like Biggest Loser(2), Celebrity Apprentice(2), Dateline(1-2),
Football(Sunday), at least 2 Thursday sitcoms(1), Deal or No Deal(2), likely
both of the L&O series(2),...sheesh, that is 13 hours right there and we
haven't even added in shows like Medium and Heroes.

The only reality show I see them airing next year for sure is "Biggest
Loser." "Apprentice" maybe. "Superstars of Dance" too early to tell.
"Dateline" is a non-entity right now. "Deal" has low 18-49 numbers and
Universal is probably happy to keep it exclusive to daytime. What else
do you see taking away spots for scripted shows?

--- What, no Howie Do It?

Post by David
And the scripted shows I see coming back are Chuck, Heroes, the three
Law & Orders, and three of the Thursday comedies.

--- If they were smart, they'd scrap them all, except 30 Rock, and ok
I'll let you have The Office and maybe Medium too, and if the LAPD/
Police series ends up being worth it, that as well. The rest should
be all-new scripted series to try not to make the network look so
visually unappetizing and put-offishly stale. Then again, we're
dealing with execs who have no concept of what makes for a worthy new
scripted series.

Post by David
This is all moot anyway since we're looking at the schedule in 2-D
(Fall only), whereas NBC will probably have three or four different
schedules for the entire year. There'll be plenty of space for
everything.

--- Everything? They've got NOTHING.

Post by David

Post by Obveeus
I maintain that it is a big waste of time for any studio to try and develop
new scripted product for NBC for next season.  It is far more logical to
shop it somewhere else and wait until the 'new NBC' is going to need
anything to replace a failed Leno...or not need anything for the forseeable
future because they have downsized the network to reality/variety/gameshow.

Studios haven't stopped developing shows for FOX (which was the
original point of all this). And with many shows going through several
pitches before finding a buyer, and other shows benefiting greatly
from 2- or 3-network bidding wars, it would be a foolish business
decision to exclude NBC.

--- But, but, but NBC is on a cost-cutting binge. How can they even
begin to get into bidding wars? That's so not bottom-linish.

Post by David
Also, the financials are such that Leno can't possibly fail.

--- Leno and football can't fail. The rest of the lineup can. As
usual, David fails to see the big picture. Maybe David should work
for NBC. Maybe he already does. No wonder the network's drowning.

[Obveeus]

Post by David
The only reality show I see them airing next year for sure is "Biggest
Loser." "Apprentice" maybe. "Superstars of Dance" too early to tell.
"Dateline" is a non-entity right now. "Deal" has low 18-49 numbers and
Universal is probably happy to keep it exclusive to daytime. What else
do you see taking away spots for scripted shows?

You just listed 6-10 hours of programing for NBC. They only have 13 hours
now with Leno sucking down 5, Saturday reruns sucking down 3 more, and NFL
sucking down Sunday.

Post by David
And the scripted shows I see coming back are Chuck, Heroes, the three
Law & Orders, and three of the Thursday comedies.

I think Criminal Intent and Friday Night Lights are gone to cable
permanently...or just gone. Chcuk is on life support as well.

Post by David
This is all moot anyway since we're looking at the schedule in 2-D
(Fall only), whereas NBC will probably have three or four different
schedules for the entire year. There'll be plenty of space for
everything.

NBC isn't going to put shows like Kings and/or Police on during the summer
when HUT levels are down and people would rather watch 'light' shows anyway.
NBC is trying to make money, after all.

Post by David

Post by Obveeus
I maintain that it is a big waste of time for any studio to try and develop
new scripted product for NBC for next season. It is far more logical to
shop it somewhere else and wait until the 'new NBC' is going to need
anything to replace a failed Leno...or not need anything for the forseeable
future because they have downsized the network to
reality/variety/gameshow.

Studios haven't stopped developing shows for FOX (which was the
original point of all this).

You keep claiming that this is the same as FOX, but it is not. FOX isn't
sitting around with 5 extra hours to downsize next year. The issue is, if
you arre a studio right now, why go to NBC and try to pitch new shows when
NBC has less space available than last year? Furthermore, your belief that
studios can'want to make shows for summer runs (13 episode seasons?) doesn't
jive with the studio goals of reaching syndication.

Post by David
Also, the financials are such that Leno can't possibly fail.

That remains to be seen. For the most part, NBC 'cannot' lose money, but
NBC also cannot make much. It isn't like Leno is going to pull in massive
viewership, especially in the demo (where the money comes from). All NBC is
really doing is setting up 5 hours of timeslot each week where they 'cannot
lose money'. That is the same thing CW network did with Sunday night this
year...and NBC faces the same worst case scenario of 'what do they do if
Leno has to be cancelled'.

[David]

Post by David
The only reality show I see them airing next year for sure is "Biggest
Loser." "Apprentice" maybe. "Superstars of Dance" too early to tell.
"Dateline" is a non-entity right now. "Deal" has low 18-49 numbers and
Universal is probably happy to keep it exclusive to daytime. What else
do you see taking away spots for scripted shows?

You just listed 6-10 hours of programing for NBC.  They only have 13 hours
now with Leno sucking down 5, Saturday reruns sucking down 3 more, and NFL
sucking down Sunday.

I listed 2 hours of programming ("The Biggest Loser"). "Apprentice"
and "Dance" are bound for midseason, if they're renewed at all. And
NBC isn't in the habit of loading Fall schedules with new reality
shows. None of the networks are because it's a strategy that almost
never works.

It's very likely that "Loser" will be the only reality show on the
Fall schedule.

Post by David
This is all moot anyway since we're looking at the schedule in 2-D
(Fall only), whereas NBC will probably have three or four different
schedules for the entire year. There'll be plenty of space for
everything.

NBC isn't going to put shows like Kings and/or Police on during the summer

I wasn't talking about Summer. They'll probably have a September-early
December, January-March, March-May, June-August schedule, as that's
what all the networks are moving towards.

Post by David

Post by Obveeus
I maintain that it is a big waste of time for any studio to try and develop
new scripted product for NBC for next season. It is far more logical to
shop it somewhere else and wait until the 'new NBC' is going to need
anything to replace a failed Leno...or not need anything for the forseeable
future because they have downsized the network to
reality/variety/gameshow.

Studios haven't stopped developing shows for FOX (which was the
original point of all this).

You keep claiming that this is the same as FOX, but it is not.  FOX isn't
sitting around with 5 extra hours to downsize next year.  The issue is, if
you arre a studio right now, why go to NBC and try to pitch new shows when
NBC has less space available than last year?  Furthermore, your belief that
studios can'want to make shows for summer runs (13 episode seasons?) doesn't
jive with the studio goals of reaching syndication.

If you're looking for a job with company X what would matter to you?
That X downsized 50 workers three months ago or that X is currently
looking for three employees to hire?

CBS, ABC and FOX probably won't have more than three or four open
slots, same as NBC. And how many of those are going to go to a sister
studio? It's hard enough for an independent studio to land on any
primetime schedule. It would be foolish to not pitch to NBC.

Post by David
Also, the financials are such that Leno can't possibly fail.

That remains to be seen.  For the most part, NBC 'cannot' lose money, but
NBC also cannot make much.  It isn't like Leno is going to pull in massive
viewership, especially in the demo (where the money comes from).  All NBC is
really doing is setting up 5 hours of timeslot each week where they 'cannot
lose money'.  That is the same thing CW network did with Sunday night this
year...and NBC faces the same worst case scenario of 'what do they do if
Leno has to be cancelled'.

Leno could only fail if it somehow turns into an XFL-level disaster.
DeadlineHollywoodDaily had the numbers - Leno will cost $2 million a
week while programming the 10 pm slot costs $15 million a week. NBC
averages 7.3 million viewers at 10. Even if their Fall '09 Leno-less
schedule were successful the best-case scenario wouldn't raise the
average more than 1.5-2 million in the current state of television. So
you can imagine how poorly Leno would need to do for NBC to not come
out way ahead.

The worst-case scenario, I'm guessing, is what happens if Leno retires
in a few years.

[Obveeus]

Post by David

Post by David
The only reality show I see them airing next year for sure is "Biggest
Loser." "Apprentice" maybe. "Superstars of Dance" too early to tell.
"Dateline" is a non-entity right now. "Deal" has low 18-49 numbers and
Universal is probably happy to keep it exclusive to daytime. What else
do you see taking away spots for scripted shows?

You just listed 6-10 hours of programing for NBC. They only have 13 hours
now with Leno sucking down 5, Saturday reruns sucking down 3 more, and NFL
sucking down Sunday.

I listed 2 hours of programming ("The Biggest Loser"). "Apprentice"
and "Dance" are bound for midseason, if they're renewed at all.

Biggest Loser is 2hrs/week. Apprentice is 2hrs/wk. Duperstars of Dance is
2hrs/week.
Dateline and DoND are 1-3 hrs/wk each.

Post by David
It's very likely that "Loser" will be the only reality show on the
Fall schedule.

NBC has 4 less hours to program in the fall because Sunday is all football.

Post by David

NBC isn't going to put shows like Kings and/or Police on during the summer

I wasn't talking about Summer. They'll probably have a September-early
December, January-March, March-May, June-August schedule, as that's
what all the networks are moving towards.

Studios are not going to be interested in trying to develop 'big time' shows
for 13 episode runs. With short runs like that, NBC is no more valuable as
a 'broadcaster' than TNT or USA Network. The studios still want to be able
to push shows to syndication levels, which isn't going to happen if they are
just getting 13 episode orders set for March-May.

Post by David
If you're looking for a job with company X what would matter to you?
That X downsized 50 workers three months ago or that X is currently
looking for three employees to hire?

There is the problem. You think NBC is hiring right now. They are not.
Instead, they had to pay a premium to ER just to get a few eps of a new show
developed for them because the producers of the new show have zero belief
that NBC is looking for anything beyond filler until the Leno transition.

Post by David
CBS, ABC and FOX probably won't have more than three or four open
slots, same as NBC.

ABC and FOX have a lot more open slots than that as all their new stuff is
failing as well as the stuff they drug along from last year.

Post by David
And how many of those are going to go to a sister
studio? It's hard enough for an independent studio to land on any
primetime schedule. It would be foolish to not pitch to NBC.

Sure...pitch to them...maybe you can get a free lunch out of them as they
hype their new 'year round schedule', their promise not to put scripted
programming in the 8pm hour, and their belief that pilots and Upfronts are
nolonger needed.

Post by David
Leno could only fail if it somehow turns into an XFL-level disaster.
DeadlineHollywoodDaily had the numbers - Leno will cost $2 million a
week while programming the 10 pm slot costs $15 million a week. NBC
averages 7.3 million viewers at 10. Even if their Fall '09 Leno-less
schedule were successful the best-case scenario wouldn't raise the
average more than 1.5-2 million in the current state of television. So
you can imagine how poorly Leno would need to do for NBC to not come
out way ahead.

Leno will pull 6 million viewers a night...and more to the point, get less
ad income than their current 10pm shows. This move isn't being done to lift
profits, it is being done to limit losses.

Post by David
The worst-case scenario, I'm guessing, is what happens if Leno retires
in a few years.

What if he gets run over by a bus next October? What if his ratings are so
low that the local affiliates start screaming about how it is hurting their
late news programs? There are many 'worse case scenarios' that are worse
than NBC being successful with this change for only a few years.

[WQ]

Post by David
The worst-case scenario, I'm guessing, is what happens if Leno retires
in a few years.

What if he gets run over by a bus next October?  What if his ratings are so
low that the local affiliates start screaming about how it is hurting their
late news programs?  There are many 'worse case scenarios' that are worse
than NBC being successful with this change for only a few years.

--- You see, that's been my point all along about NBC - they don't
plan long-term. Sure, it's nice that 5 hours a week are "solved" by
having Leno in them and they look forward to reaping profits from
cheap programming, but as you say, what if Leno gets run over by a bus
next October? What would NBC do in that eventuality? Since they
don't appear to be planning any new scripted shows for the fall that I
know of, what's their back-up strategy? Repeats of Leno's 11:30
Tonight Show? Yeah, that'll fly high. This Leno thing is a case for
NBC of putting all their eggs in one basket and short-term gain for
long-term pain. And they're already in long-term pain for all the
fleeting short-term gains they went through. And what does Leno
really have to bring to viewers that they haven't seen enough of
already for 16 years? NBC would've been better off to let Leno go to
another network because, personally, I don't think he's got that much
of a strong following. They just watch him at 11:30 more out of
Tonight Show habit than anything else. Put a dead frog as host of
that show and I'm sure they'd do just as well.

[David]

Post by Obveeus
NBC has 4 less hours to program in the fall because Sunday is all football.

Yes and "Biggest Loser" will be the only reality show on their Fall
schedule. "Chuck" will probably go to midseason so they can use
"Heroes" to launch something else. David E. Kelley's "Legally Mad"
will take another slot so there'll probably be 2 open drama slots and
1 comedy slot for new shows.

But, again, that's just Fall. For the whole year NBC could order any
number of shows. And altogether their development cycle will be no
different than any other network's.

Post by Obveeus

Post by David

Post by Obveeus
NBC isn't going to put shows like Kings and/or Police on during the summer

I wasn't talking about Summer. They'll probably have a September-early
December, January-March, March-May, June-August schedule, as that's
what all the networks are moving towards.

Studios are not going to be interested in trying to develop 'big time' shows
for 13 episode runs.  With short runs like that, NBC is no more valuable as
a 'broadcaster' than TNT or USA Network.  The studios still want to be able
to push shows to syndication levels, which isn't going to happen if they are
just getting 13 episode orders set for March-May.

Again that's no different than what any other network is doing at
midseason, and again it's not stopping the other networks from
continuing as they've always done. Studios don't seem to have a
problem with 13-episode orders, whether it's for ABC, CBS or a
countless number of cable channels. Obviously they're making their
money somehow.

Post by Obveeus

Post by David
If you're looking for a job with company X what would matter to you?
That X downsized 50 workers three months ago or that X is currently
looking for three employees to hire?

There is the problem.  You think NBC is hiring right now.  

How many slots do you see CBS, ABC or FOX having on their Fall
schedule? Significantly more than NBC? I'm going to guess just about
the same. Any studio that isn't pitching to NBC is shooting themselves
in both feet, but I'm guessing there's no such studio.

Post by Obveeus
They are not.
Instead, they had to pay a premium to ER just to get a few eps of a new show
developed for them because the producers of the new show have zero belief
that NBC is looking for anything beyond filler until the Leno transition.

You're reading what you wish to read into this situation. The reality
was that NBC only needed 6 episodes because the slot was going to be
occupied by "ER" until late in the season and they also had "Kings."
It had nothing to do with Leno or any studio's perception of NBC.

Post by Obveeus

Post by David
CBS, ABC and FOX probably won't have more than three or four open
slots, same as NBC.

ABC and FOX have a lot more open slots than that as all their new stuff is
failing as well as the stuff they drug along from last year.

It's too early to talk about Fall schedules. ABC's and FOX's midseason
shows are yet to even premiere.

Post by Obveeus

Post by David
And how many of those are going to go to a sister
studio? It's hard enough for an independent studio to land on any
primetime schedule. It would be foolish to not pitch to NBC.

Sure...pitch to them...maybe you can get a free lunch out of them as they
hype their new 'year round schedule', their promise not to put scripted
programming in the 8pm hour, and their belief that pilots and Upfronts are
nolonger needed.

Your ideas about running a studio are about on par with WQ's ideas
about running a network. Well slightly better because you'll at least
get a free lunch out of WQ.

Post by Obveeus

Post by David
Leno could only fail if it somehow turns into an XFL-level disaster.
DeadlineHollywoodDaily had the numbers - Leno will cost $2 million a
week while programming the 10 pm slot costs $15 million a week. NBC
averages 7.3 million viewers at 10. Even if their Fall '09 Leno-less
schedule were successful the best-case scenario wouldn't raise the
average more than 1.5-2 million in the current state of television. So
you can imagine how poorly Leno would need to do for NBC to not come
out way ahead.

Leno will pull 6 million viewers a night...and more to the point, get less
ad income than their current 10pm shows.  This move isn't being done to lift
profits, it is being done to limit losses.

6 million? I was thinking Leno could do 4 million. 6 million would
make NBC ecstatic. When you factor in NBC's year-round ratings,
including all the reruns, they probably average less than that.

[WQ]

Post by David

Post by Obveeus

Post by David
And how many of those are going to go to a sister
studio? It's hard enough for an independent studio to land on any
primetime schedule. It would be foolish to not pitch to NBC.

Sure...pitch to them...maybe you can get a free lunch out of them as they
hype their new 'year round schedule', their promise not to put scripted
programming in the 8pm hour, and their belief that pilots and Upfronts are
nolonger needed.

Your ideas about running a studio are about on par with WQ's ideas
about running a network. Well slightly better because you'll at least
get a free lunch out of WQ.

--- I don't give free lunches. You have to earn them.

Post by David

Post by Obveeus

Post by David
Leno could only fail if it somehow turns into an XFL-level disaster.
DeadlineHollywoodDaily had the numbers - Leno will cost $2 million a
week while programming the 10 pm slot costs $15 million a week. NBC
averages 7.3 million viewers at 10. Even if their Fall '09 Leno-less
schedule were successful the best-case scenario wouldn't raise the
average more than 1.5-2 million in the current state of television. So
you can imagine how poorly Leno would need to do for NBC to not come
out way ahead.

Leno will pull 6 million viewers a night...and more to the point, get less
ad income than their current 10pm shows.  This move isn't being done to lift
profits, it is being done to limit losses.

6 million? I was thinking Leno could do 4 million. 6 million would
make NBC ecstatic. When you factor in NBC's year-round ratings,
including all the reruns, they probably average less than that.

--- That's 4-6 million at the start. Halfway through the season
viewers will weary of the schtick and by season's end Leno will be
lucky to pull in half of what he started off with. Meanwhile, the
Leno effect will be negative throughout the rest of NBC's lineup
because his show will severely limit scheduling flexibility. What if
there's a promising new show that can't cut it at 9 but everyone is
convinced it can make a go of it at 10, especially opposite some limp
ABC and CBS offerings? But no can do, 10 just won't be an option
anymore for NBC, so then the network, as well as viewers, lose out on
what could've been a hit. Keep that happening often enough and as
Obveeus says, no one will want to pitch to NBC anymore, because while
NBC might make money off Leno in underachieving terms, producers and
studios will see that they won't be able to make money having their
shows on NBC. This is something that goes beyond just 10 pm, the Leno
show effectively neutralizes any capability of NBC's primetime to
function in any normal advantageous and opportunistic way towards
building a solid overall lineup and completely abandons any notion for
the network to ever become No. 1 again. But we expect David to think
small, insular and short-term to not be able to see The Exponential
Big Picture of Things.

[Obveeus]

Post by David

Post by Obveeus
They are not.
Instead, they had to pay a premium to ER just to get a few eps of a new show
developed for them because the producers of the new show have zero belief
that NBC is looking for anything beyond filler until the Leno transition.

You're reading what you wish to read into this situation. The reality
was that NBC only needed 6 episodes because the slot was going to be
occupied by "ER" until late in the season and they also had "Kings."
It had nothing to do with Leno or any studio's perception of NBC.

ER wasn't going late into the season originally. then, when NBC realized
that ER is better than any of their new offerings, they gave it more
episodes. Now, in order to convince the 'Police' producers to give them a
mini order, they are giving ER even more episodes. The producers know that
ER is sure money (syndication levels already and a set fee from NBC for each
new episode)...and that money is enough that they are willing to pump out a
6 episode order for Police as a throw away. if they are wise, they will try
to design the show as something that they can repackage and try to sell to
TNT, USA, FX next season while the problems at NBC get sorted out.

Post by David

Post by Obveeus

Post by David
And how many of those are going to go to a sister
studio? It's hard enough for an independent studio to land on any
primetime schedule. It would be foolish to not pitch to NBC.

Sure...pitch to them...maybe you can get a free lunch out of them as they
hype their new 'year round schedule', their promise not to put scripted
programming in the 8pm hour, and their belief that pilots and Upfronts are
nolonger needed.

Your ideas about running a studio are about on par with WQ's ideas
about running a network. Well slightly better because you'll at least
get a free lunch out of WQ.

NBC is the 4th place network. You seem to be the only one that thinks they
are doing a great job and you seem to be the only one that thinks that the 5
hours getting handed over to a Leno talkshow won't reduce the number of
scripted series that NBC 'needs' for next year.

Post by David

Post by Obveeus
Leno will pull 6 million viewers a night...and more to the point, get less
ad income than their current 10pm shows. This move isn't being done to
lift
profits, it is being done to limit losses.

6 million? I was thinking Leno could do 4 million. 6 million would
make NBC ecstatic. When you factor in NBC's year-round ratings,
including all the reruns, they probably average less than that.

6 million is what it will pull in November/Feb sweeps. I wasn't offering up
a rating for how poorly it will do in the summer months.

[WQ]

Post by David
Your ideas about running a studio are about on par with WQ's ideas
about running a network. Well slightly better because you'll at least
get a free lunch out of WQ.

NBC is the 4th place network.  You seem to be the only one that thinks they
are doing a great job and you seem to be the only one that thinks that the 5
hours getting handed over to a Leno talkshow won't reduce the number of
scripted series that NBC 'needs' for next year.

--- That's David for you. He's exactly what I've had to deal with for
the last 7 years. For him, it's all about thinking in terms of short-
term gain and not seeing the long-term pain. I think he's been on
NBC's payroll to secretly advise them on their programming
strategies. Somehow, he's convinced them that as long as they make
money today, it doesn't matter if they'll end up in 7th place
tomorrow, so long as they still keep making money tomorrow, even if
it's less than half of what they made today.

[David]

Post by David

Post by Obveeus
They are not.
Instead, they had to pay a premium to ER just to get a few eps of a new show
developed for them because the producers of the new show have zero belief
that NBC is looking for anything beyond filler until the Leno transition.

You're reading what you wish to read into this situation. The reality
was that NBC only needed 6 episodes because the slot was going to be
occupied by "ER" until late in the season and they also had "Kings."
It had nothing to do with Leno or any studio's perception of NBC.

ER wasn't going late into the season originally.  

Yeah it was. It was renewed for 17 episodes. When did you think it was
going to end?

then, when NBC realized
that ER is better than any of their new offerings, they gave it more
episodes.  Now, in order to convince the 'Police' producers to give them a
mini order, they are giving ER even more episodes.  The producers know that
ER is sure money (syndication levels already and a set fee from NBC for each
new episode)...and that money is enough that they are willing to pump out a
6 episode order for Police as a throw away.  

Warner did what a smart studio is supposed to do: They negotiated.
Especially when they only had a 6-episode order on the table, which
probably means they wouldn't have made back the start-up costs if the
show is cancelled. They did a similar thing with "ER" a decade ago,
using it to negotiate a renewal for "Lois & Clark."

Tying it into Leno or NBC's perceived lack of space next year
(especially when NBC would always make space for a successful producer
- see: Sorkin, Kelley, Wolf) is you seeing what you want to see.

Post by David
Your ideas about running a studio are about on par with WQ's ideas
about running a network. Well slightly better because you'll at least
get a free lunch out of WQ.

NBC is the 4th place network.  You seem to be the only one that thinks they
are doing a great job and you seem to be the only one that thinks that the 5
hours getting handed over to a Leno talkshow won't reduce the number of
scripted series that NBC 'needs' for next year.

I never said NBC is doing great. I said that, with the microchance any
show has of getting on the air, it would be boneheaded for a studio to
ignore any viable buyer. Yes even if it's MyNetworkTV.

Post by David

Post by Obveeus
Leno will pull 6 million viewers a night...and more to the point, get less
ad income than their current 10pm shows. This move isn't being done to
lift
profits, it is being done to limit losses.

6 million? I was thinking Leno could do 4 million. 6 million would
make NBC ecstatic. When you factor in NBC's year-round ratings,
including all the reruns, they probably average less than that.

6 million is what it will pull in November/Feb sweeps.  I wasn't offering up
a rating for how poorly it will do in the summer months.

He'll probably do better in the Summer. Leno said he'll do new shows
46 weeks a year.

[David]

Post by David
Warner did what a smart studio is supposed to do: They negotiated.
Especially when they only had a 6-episode order on the table, which
probably means they wouldn't have made back the start-up costs if the
show is cancelled. They did a similar thing with "ER" a decade ago,
using it to negotiate a renewal for "Lois & Clark."

That's wrong, it was some other show. I don't recall which one.

[David]

Post by David

Post by David
Warner did what a smart studio is supposed to do: They negotiated.
Especially when they only had a 6-episode order on the table, which
probably means they wouldn't have made back the start-up costs if the
show is cancelled. They did a similar thing with "ER" a decade ago,
using it to negotiate a renewal for "Lois & Clark."

That's wrong, it was some other show. I don't recall which one.

I remembered - they used Rosie O'Donnell's daytime show to get "Lois &
Clark" renewed.

[Obveeus]

Time to rest, David, you are now talking to yourself. ;-)

How else am I going to win the January posting title?

Your best bet would be to search for Anim8rFSK...then reply to every one of
his posts...but do you really have that much free time?

[WQ]

Post by Obveeus

Time to rest, David, you are now talking to yourself. ;-)

How else am I going to win the January posting title?

Your best bet would be to search for Anim8rFSK...then reply to every one of
his posts...but do you really have that much free time?

--- Yes, and probably even more than that than you think. I seriously
believe he's literally chained himself to his computer desk so he can
remain totally plugged in 24/7. He now weighs a massive 1,412 pounds
- a prime candidate for The Biggest Loser - on NBC, no less! Hell,
even I'd watch that.

[David]

Post by Obveeus

Time to rest, David, you are now talking to yourself. ;-)

How else am I going to win the January posting title?

Your best bet would be to search for Anim8rFSK...then reply to every one of
his posts...but do you really have that much free time?

It would be simpler if he'd suffer a hand injury, but I'm not saying
that anyone should hurt Fred while I'm online establishing an alibi,
then email me after it's done with their PayPal account number, from
an internet cafe, using an anonymous email address.

[Obveeus]

Post by David

Post by Obveeus

Time to rest, David, you are now talking to yourself. ;-)

How else am I going to win the January posting title?

Your best bet would be to search for Anim8rFSK...then reply to every one of
his posts...but do you really have that much free time?

It would be simpler if he'd suffer a hand injury, but I'm not saying
that anyone should hurt Fred while I'm online establishing an alibi,
then email me after it's done with their PayPal account number, from
an internet cafe, using an anonymous email address.

Tanya Harding...is that you?

[David]

Post by Obveeus

Post by David

Post by Obveeus

Time to rest, David, you are now talking to yourself. ;-)

How else am I going to win the January posting title?

Your best bet would be to search for Anim8rFSK...then reply to every one of
his posts...but do you really have that much free time?

It would be simpler if he'd suffer a hand injury, but I'm not saying
that anyone should hurt Fred while I'm online establishing an alibi,
then email me after it's done with their PayPal account number, from
an internet cafe, using an anonymous email address.

Tanya Harding...is that you?

I wouldn't have gotten caught.

[Default User]

Post by Obveeus

Time to rest, David, you are now talking to yourself. ;-)

How else am I going to win the January posting title?

Your best bet would be to search for Anim8rFSK...then reply to every
one of his posts...but do you really have that much free time?

A competent software engineer could write a 'bot to do that (and WQ
too!). I don't know what most of the slackers and bums here would do.




Brian

[David]

Post by Default User

Post by Obveeus

Time to rest, David, you are now talking to yourself. ;-)

How else am I going to win the January posting title?

Your best bet would be to search for Anim8rFSK...then reply to every
one of his posts...but do you really have that much free time?

A competent software engineer could write a 'bot to do that (and WQ
too!). I don't know what most of the slackers and bums here would do.

I'm not a guy who writes auto-response programs. I'm a guy who reads
your posts and then screams "HE'S A NERD! GET 'IM!!!!!!"

[Default User]

Post by David
I'm not a guy who writes auto-response programs. I'm a guy who reads
your posts and then screams "HE'S A NERD! GET 'IM!!!!!!"

*plonk*




Brian

[David]

Post by Default User

Post by David
I'm not a guy who writes auto-response programs. I'm a guy who reads
your posts and then screams "HE'S A NERD! GET 'IM!!!!!!"

*plonk*

You wouldn't need to plonk me so many times if you'd put some muscle
into it, Nancy!

[Default User]

Post by David

Post by David
I'm not a guy who writes auto-response programs. I'm a guy who
reads your posts and then screams "HE'S A NERD! GET 'IM!!!!!!"

plonk

You wouldn't need to plonk me so many times if you'd put some muscle
into it, Nancy!

I'll plonk you softly because I know you're hurting right now.

*plink*




Brian

[David]

Post by Default User

Post by David

Post by David
I'm not a guy who writes auto-response programs. I'm a guy who
reads your posts and then screams "HE'S A NERD! GET 'IM!!!!!!"

plonk

You wouldn't need to plonk me so many times if you'd put some muscle
into it, Nancy!

I'll plonk you softly because I know you're hurting right now.
*plink*

You don't care about me. If you did you would've wiped my plonking
slate clean.

[Default User]

Post by David

Post by Default User

Post by David
You wouldn't need to plonk me so many times if you'd put some
muscle into it, Nancy!

I'll plonk you softly because I know you're hurting right now.
plink

You don't care about me. If you did you would've wiped my plonking
slate clean.

No, I couldn't do that. Besides, I'm still reeling from the concept
that the Arizona Warners are not only in the NFC Championship game, but
are hosting. We'd all consoled ourselves earlier with the sure and
certain knowledge that they'd be thoroughly thrashed in the first
round, and now lookit!




Brian

[David]

Post by Default User

Post by David

Post by Default User

Post by David
You wouldn't need to plonk me so many times if you'd put some
muscle into it, Nancy!

I'll plonk you softly because I know you're hurting right now.
plink

You don't care about me. If you did you would've wiped my plonking
slate clean.

No, I couldn't do that.

Sure you can. It's a brand new year and it's Dawn in America. Let go
of your old plonkings and embrace a new era of hope and change!

Post by Default User
Besides, I'm still reeling from the concept
that the Arizona Warners are not only in the NFC Championship game, but
are hosting. We'd all consoled ourselves earlier with the sure and
certain knowledge that they'd be thoroughly thrashed in the first
round, and now lookit!

How about Ian's mouthing off being thrown back into his face? That
makes me a little happy.

[Obveeus]

Post by David

Post by David

Post by David
Warner did what a smart studio is supposed to do: They negotiated.
Especially when they only had a 6-episode order on the table, which
probably means they wouldn't have made back the start-up costs if the
show is cancelled. They did a similar thing with "ER" a decade ago,
using it to negotiate a renewal for "Lois & Clark."

That's wrong, it was some other show. I don't recall which one.

I remembered - they used Rosie O'Donnell's daytime show to get "Lois &
Clark" renewed.

Time to rest, David, you are now talking to yourself. ;-)

[David]

Post by David

Post by David

Post by David
Warner did what a smart studio is supposed to do: They negotiated.
Especially when they only had a 6-episode order on the table, which
probably means they wouldn't have made back the start-up costs if the
show is cancelled. They did a similar thing with "ER" a decade ago,
using it to negotiate a renewal for "Lois & Clark."

That's wrong, it was some other show. I don't recall which one.

I remembered - they used Rosie O'Donnell's daytime show to get "Lois &
Clark" renewed.

Time to rest, David, you are now talking to yourself.  ;-)

How else am I going to win the January posting title?

[Obveeus]

Post by David

Post by Obveeus

Post by David

Post by Obveeus
They are not.
Instead, they had to pay a premium to ER just to get a few eps of a
new
show
developed for them because the producers of the new show have zero belief
that NBC is looking for anything beyond filler until the Leno transition.

You're reading what you wish to read into this situation. The reality
was that NBC only needed 6 episodes because the slot was going to be
occupied by "ER" until late in the season and they also had "Kings."
It had nothing to do with Leno or any studio's perception of NBC.

ER wasn't going late into the season originally.

Yeah it was. It was renewed for 17 episodes. When did you think it was
going to end?

You need to pay better attention to that stuff you copy and paste. ER has
already been extended this season. This is the second extension. This
second extension now realistically leaves to little space for Kings.

Post by David

Post by Obveeus
then, when NBC realized
that ER is better than any of their new offerings, they gave it more
episodes. Now, in order to convince the 'Police' producers to give them a
mini order, they are giving ER even more episodes. The producers know
that
ER is sure money (syndication levels already and a set fee from NBC for each
new episode)...and that money is enough that they are willing to pump out a
6 episode order for Police as a throw away.

Warner did what a smart studio is supposed to do: They negotiated.
Especially when they only had a 6-episode order on the table, which
probably means they wouldn't have made back the start-up costs if the
show is cancelled.

That was my whole point, David. Warner got solid money by forcing NBC to
pick up more episodes of ER yet again...and in exchange Warner is now
willing to make a half dozen throw away episodes of Police for NBC. Warner
can see the writing on the wall and logically doubts NBC's ability to find a
22 episode spot on next year's schedule for Police.

Post by David
Tying it into Leno or NBC's perceived lack of space next year
(especially when NBC would always make space for a successful producer
- see: Sorkin, Kelley, Wolf) is you seeing what you want to see.

No. NBC has already stated that 10pm 5 nights per week next year is
destined for Jay Leno's new show.

Post by David

Post by Obveeus
NBC is the 4th place network. You seem to be the only one that thinks
they
are doing a great job and you seem to be the only one that thinks that the 5
hours getting handed over to a Leno talkshow won't reduce the number of
scripted series that NBC 'needs' for next year.

I never said NBC is doing great. I said that, with the microchance any
show has of getting on the air, it would be boneheaded for a studio to
ignore any viable buyer. Yes even if it's MyNetworkTV.

Studios are there to make money. They will shop their shows to networks
that could air them and pay a reasonable fee for that right. Warner isn't
going to waste time with a show like Police pitching it to MNTV.

Post by David

Post by Obveeus
6 million is what it will pull in November/Feb sweeps. I wasn't offering
up
a rating for how poorly it will do in the summer months.

He'll probably do better in the Summer. Leno said he'll do new shows
46 weeks a year.

New episodes of Leno's show won't magically make more people watch broadcast
tv in the summer.

[David]

Post by David

Post by Obveeus

Post by David

Post by Obveeus
They are not.
Instead, they had to pay a premium to ER just to get a few eps of a
new
show
developed for them because the producers of the new show have zero belief
that NBC is looking for anything beyond filler until the Leno transition.

You're reading what you wish to read into this situation. The reality
was that NBC only needed 6 episodes because the slot was going to be
occupied by "ER" until late in the season and they also had "Kings."
It had nothing to do with Leno or any studio's perception of NBC.

ER wasn't going late into the season originally.

Yeah it was. It was renewed for 17 episodes. When did you think it was
going to end?

You need to pay better attention to that stuff you copy and paste.  ER has
already been extended this season.  This is the second extension.  This
second extension now realistically leaves to little space for Kings.

Yes it was an extension for 2 episodes. So little I didn't even bother
to repost the story when I saw it. Nevertheless, 17 episodes were
going to run out late in the season even if they didn't order any
more.

Post by David

Post by Obveeus
then, when NBC realized
that ER is better than any of their new offerings, they gave it more
episodes. Now, in order to convince the 'Police' producers to give them a
mini order, they are giving ER even more episodes. The producers know
that
ER is sure money (syndication levels already and a set fee from NBC for each
new episode)...and that money is enough that they are willing to pump out a
6 episode order for Police as a throw away.

Warner did what a smart studio is supposed to do: They negotiated.
Especially when they only had a 6-episode order on the table, which
probably means they wouldn't have made back the start-up costs if the
show is cancelled.

That was my whole point, David.  Warner got solid money by forcing NBC to
pick up more episodes of ER yet again...and in exchange Warner is now
willing to make a half dozen throw away episodes of Police for NBC.  Warner
can see the writing on the wall and logically doubts NBC's ability to find a
22 episode spot on next year's schedule for Police.

They took precautions just like any studio with negotiating power
would do. What's the rate of failure of new shows, 85 percent? Why
would they invest in a new show against those odds?

Post by David
Tying it into Leno or NBC's perceived lack of space next year
(especially when NBC would always make space for a successful producer
- see: Sorkin, Kelley, Wolf) is you seeing what you want to see.

No.  NBC has already stated that 10pm 5 nights per week next year is
destined for Jay Leno's new show.

So instead of pitching to NBC for the three or four slots they'll have
left, and who knows how many more on the midseason schedule, you, the
studio head, are going to sit in your office and wait for a call from
CBS instead?

Post by David

Post by Obveeus
NBC is the 4th place network. You seem to be the only one that thinks
they
are doing a great job and you seem to be the only one that thinks that the 5
hours getting handed over to a Leno talkshow won't reduce the number of
scripted series that NBC 'needs' for next year.

I never said NBC is doing great. I said that, with the microchance any
show has of getting on the air, it would be boneheaded for a studio to
ignore any viable buyer. Yes even if it's MyNetworkTV.

Studios are there to make money.  They will shop their shows to networks
that could air them and pay a reasonable fee for that right.  Warner isn't
going to waste time with a show like Police pitching it to MNTV.

NBC isn't going to pay studios a reasonable fee?

Post by David

Post by Obveeus
6 million is what it will pull in November/Feb sweeps. I wasn't offering
up
a rating for how poorly it will do in the summer months.

He'll probably do better in the Summer. Leno said he'll do new shows
46 weeks a year.

New episodes of Leno's show won't magically make more people watch broadcast
tv in the summer.

There's probably a reason why Leno, Letterman et al don't take a week
off between May and Labor Day.

[WQ]

Post by David

You need to pay better attention to that stuff you copy and paste.  ER has
already been extended this season.  This is the second extension.  This
second extension now realistically leaves to little space for Kings.

Yes it was an extension for 2 episodes. So little I didn't even bother
to repost the story when I saw it. Nevertheless, 17 episodes were
going to run out late in the season even if they didn't order any
more.

--- End of February isn't exactly late in the season.

Post by David

Post by David
Warner did what a smart studio is supposed to do: They negotiated.
Especially when they only had a 6-episode order on the table, which
probably means they wouldn't have made back the start-up costs if the
show is cancelled.

That was my whole point, David.  Warner got solid money by forcing NBC to
pick up more episodes of ER yet again...and in exchange Warner is now
willing to make a half dozen throw away episodes of Police for NBC.  Warner
can see the writing on the wall and logically doubts NBC's ability to find a
22 episode spot on next year's schedule for Police.

They took precautions just like any studio with negotiating power
would do. What's the rate of failure of new shows, 85 percent? Why
would they invest in a new show against those odds?

--- Because old shows eventually run out of steam? And how do old
shows become old shows in the first place? By first becoming new
shows that studios invested in - and at against the odds, too.

Post by David

Post by David
Tying it into Leno or NBC's perceived lack of space next year
(especially when NBC would always make space for a successful producer
- see: Sorkin, Kelley, Wolf) is you seeing what you want to see.

No.  NBC has already stated that 10pm 5 nights per week next year is
destined for Jay Leno's new show.

So instead of pitching to NBC for the three or four slots they'll have
left, and who knows how many more on the midseason schedule, you, the
studio head, are going to sit in your office and wait for a call from
CBS instead?

--- At least if the show lands on CBS, the likelihood of it actually
being seen by viewers is pretty high, unlike NBC. More viewers = more
episodes. More episodes = more money. After all, it's all about
investment and getting more bang out of your buck, isn't it? That's
not going to happen with NBC these days.

[WQ]

Post by David
Warner did what a smart studio is supposed to do: They negotiated.
Especially when they only had a 6-episode order on the table, which
probably means they wouldn't have made back the start-up costs if the
show is cancelled. They did a similar thing with "ER" a decade ago,
using it to negotiate a renewal for "Lois & Clark."

--- ER was, and still is, on NBC. Lois & Clark was on ABC. It's
doubtful if one had to to do anything with the other in that case.

Post by David

Post by David
Your ideas about running a studio are about on par with WQ's ideas
about running a network. Well slightly better because you'll at least
get a free lunch out of WQ.

NBC is the 4th place network.  You seem to be the only one that thinks they
are doing a great job and you seem to be the only one that thinks that the 5
hours getting handed over to a Leno talkshow won't reduce the number of
scripted series that NBC 'needs' for next year.

I never said NBC is doing great. I said that, with the microchance any
show has of getting on the air, it would be boneheaded for a studio to
ignore any viable buyer. Yes even if it's MyNetworkTV.

--- What studio is doing shows for MyNet TV?

[Obveeus]

Post by WQ
--- What studio is doing shows for MyNet TV?

ATI
http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/hr/content_display/news/e3i4790a46c9905faf379116009265e4b5f

[David]

Post by WQ
--- What studio is doing shows for MyNet TV?

ATIhttp://www.hollywoodreporter.com/hr/content_display/news/e3i4790a46c9...

Aww somebody finally paid attention to Qbert. Look at that toothless
smile :-)

[WQ]

Post by WQ
--- What studio is doing shows for MyNet TV?

ATIhttp://www.hollywoodreporter.com/hr/content_display/news/e3i4790a46c9...

--- What the hell is an ATI? That's not a major studio, it's
someone's backyard garage.

[Obveeus]

Post by WQ

Post by WQ
--- What studio is doing shows for MyNet TV?

ATIhttp://www.hollywoodreporter.com/hr/content_display/news/e3i4790a46c9...

--- What the hell is an ATI? That's not a major studio, it's
someone's backyard garage.

Well...yes...but it is the biggest studio making stuff for MNTV, aside from
WWE's studio.

[WQ]

Post by Obveeus

Post by WQ
--- What studio is doing shows for MyNet TV?

ATIhttp://www.hollywoodreporter.com/hr/content_display/news/e3i4790a46c9...

--- What the hell is an ATI?  That's not a major studio, it's
someone's backyard garage.

Well...yes...but it is the biggest studio making stuff for MNTV, aside from
WWE's studio.

--- Well, that's like saying somebody's 2-inch dick is bigger than
everybody else's 1-inch dick, but over there in the next room, where
the real action is, everybody's got 7- and 8-inch dicks.

[Rob Jensen]

Post by David
Warner did what a smart studio is supposed to do: They negotiated.
Especially when they only had a 6-episode order on the table, which
probably means they wouldn't have made back the start-up costs if the
show is cancelled. They did a similar thing with "ER" a decade ago,
using it to negotiate a renewal for "Lois & Clark."

That can't be true. Lois & Clark was on ABC. Must have been another
show that Warner used to strong-arm NBC into picking up ER. Or that
Warner used to strong-arm ABC regarding s4 of Lois & Clark.

-- Rob

[Rob Jensen]

Post by David

Post by Obveeus
NBC has 4 less hours to program in the fall because Sunday is all football.

Yes and "Biggest Loser" will be the only reality show on their Fall
schedule. "Chuck" will probably go to midseason so they can use
"Heroes" to launch something else. David E. Kelley's "Legally Mad"
will take another slot so there'll probably be 2 open drama slots and
1 comedy slot for new shows.

Even as stupid and coked up as Ben Silverman is, there's no way in
hell that NBC's going to hold Chuck until the Spring. Fox is
*waaaaay* too weak in the 8pm Monday timeslot and there's no way that
Fox is going to keep House there when that net will need to move that
show back to Tuesdays quickly when they finally realize that Fringe
won't be able to compete with The Mentalist.

My bet is that after a week or two of Lie To Me on Wednesday nights (a
stupid move on Fox's part): House goes back to Tuesdays at 9pm, Bones
goes back to Wednesdays at 9pm and Fringe goes to Thursdays at 8pm,
with Mondays at 8pm going to Lie to Me -- or if that one flops bad,
then Mondays will be House repeats or Bones repeats or a rotation of
repeats from both. It helps that Lie To Me has the stench of
"poor-man's-The-Mentalist/Psych/Monk/Any-quirky-detective-show" to me.

-- Rob

[WQ]

Post by Rob Jensen

Post by David

Post by Obveeus
NBC has 4 less hours to program in the fall because Sunday is all football.

Yes and "Biggest Loser" will be the only reality show on their Fall
schedule. "Chuck" will probably go to midseason so they can use
"Heroes" to launch something else. David E. Kelley's "Legally Mad"
will take another slot so there'll probably be 2 open drama slots and
1 comedy slot for new shows.

Even as stupid and coked up as Ben Silverman is, there's no way in
hell that NBC's going to hold Chuck until the Spring.  Fox is
*waaaaay* too weak in the 8pm Monday timeslot and there's no way that
Fox is going to keep House there when that net will need to move that
show back to Tuesdays quickly when they finally realize that Fringe
won't be able to compete with The Mentalist.

---For a FOX show, Fringe has done alright opposite The Mentalist,
averaging about just under a 6 rating, being about 1.3 better than the
network's overall average for the fall. Its return on January 20
should see quite a bit of an uplift in its numbers, aided both by lead-
in American Idol and the fact that there will be no Mentalist at 9
that night but a repeat at 10. CBS will instead air a recap of the
Obama inaugural. Fringe might go as high as 9 that night and gain
some new followers as a result. Let's face it, Fringe's only
competition in that slot is The Mentalist, but even then, both shows
play to 2 different types of viewers, I'd say. House, meanwhile, will
do about as well on Monday at 8 as it's done on Tuesday at 8.
 

Post by Rob Jensen
My bet is that after a week or two of Lie To Me on Wednesday nights (a
stupid move on Fox's part): House goes back to Tuesdays at 9pm, Bones
goes back to Wednesdays at 9pm and Fringe goes to Thursdays at 8pm,
with Mondays at 8pm going to Lie to Me -- or if that one flops bad,
then Mondays will be House repeats or Bones repeats or a rotation of
repeats from both.  It helps that Lie To Me has the stench of
"poor-man's-The-Mentalist/Psych/Monk/Any-quirky-detective-show" to me.

--- Nope, you got it all wrong. Everything will stay put as is. Lie
to Me looks like a weird, misplaced kind of show for FOX with a lead
actor who looks miscast in a premise that sounds misconceived. That
said, because it's got American Idol as its lead-in, it might get a 6
rating at best, nevertheless. Still, I doubt if that'll be enough to
convince FOX to keep it beyond mid-season because a 6 rating with an
Idol lead-in only translates to a 3 or 4 without an Idol lead-in the
fall.

[Rob Jensen]

On Thu, 8 Jan 2009 17:25:09 -0800 (PST), Lord Vader III

Post by Lord Vader III

Post by David
from the hollywood reporter
More John Wells at NBC
Episodic orders for 'ER,' 'Police'
By Nellie Andreeva
It will be a longer goodbye for NBC's veteran medical drama "ER,"
whose final 15th season has been extended by three additional
episodes.
As part of NBC's deal with producer Warner Bros. TV and "ER" executive
producer John Wells, NBC also has ordered six episodes from the Wells-
produced new cop drama "Police."
NBC and Warner Bros. had been in intense negotiations over the past
few weeks for a "Police" series pickup.
The network had been asking for a 12-episode midseason order, while
WBTV had been reluctant to deficit such a large order in light of
NBC's recent decision to launch a Jay Leno-fronted talk show in the 10
p.m. hour next fall, which would limit the network's needs for drama
series.
Meanwhile, NBC, WBTV and Wells had also been talking about adding
additional three episodes to the 19-hour final season of "ER," which
has performed in the fall, regularly winning its Thursday 10 p.m.
slot.
It is not clear how the extended season of "ER" will affect new drama
"Kings," which was slated to air in the slot following the "ER" series
finale March 12.
It's possible for "Police" to succeed "ER" Thursdays at 10 p.m. as it
was originally envisioned and for "Kings" to move to another night.

I'm really not surprised at all about the ER announcement. There's no
reason for NBC to take if off the air in March (I think that's when
the last episode was scheduled).

In NBC's slight defense on this subject, Sweeps was officially moved
from February to March this year due to the HDTV switchover, so the
net and Warner were aiming for its finale to occur during sweeps. Now
it'll probably mean that we'll get around 4-5 more episodes in a row
'til it goes away in late-Feb/early-March to come back in late April
to time it so that the series finale hits during May Sweeps.

Post by Lord Vader III
I wouldn't even be surprised to see
more episodes get ordered before its over. Hell, before NBC announced
Leno at 10pm next season, I was wondering how long it was going to
take NBC to throw a shitload of money at Wells to bring ER back for at
least a shortened 16th season.

Depends. I am almost ready to give the show 50/50 odds to come back
next season -- even *with* the impending debacle of Jay Leno taking
over the 10pm timeslots. SVU's new ADA is on her way out, with
Stephanie March coming back in for six episodes that clearly must be
the last six episodes of the season (and possibly of the series since
IIRC, Hargitay and Meloni's contracts are up again). But hey, even if
NBC were to plug Criminal Intent into that timeslot hole (ie: 9pm
Tuesdays next season), Friday Night Lights will still need a timeslot
partner on, err, Friday nights. And, umm, 8pm Wednesdays don't got
nothin'. And neither does Sundays when football's over for the year.
And come to think of it, Tuesdays at 8pm is a sucky timeslot for them,
too. And it's not as if "Kings" or "That Stoopid LA Police Show" are
ever going to go anywhere. They're the red-shirted ensigns of NBC
programming right now.

As for ER's subject matter being any sort of a concern: the gory
storylines and the occasional raciness don't matter with Grey's being
both gory and racy and CSI already being just as gory in the Thursday
9pm night timeslot already. And while ER is a shadow of its Clooney
days, it's nevertheless been on a creative upswing over the past
couple of years (Abby's relapse notwithstanding). The new interns are
engaging, Scott Grimes is really starting to take over as a more
emotionally stable, yet still hilariously immature Archie Morris. Plus
Sam, Stamos, Neela. They've still got potential. And, as Babylon 5
clearly demonstrated, there's no reason why they couldn't shoot the
series finale this year and hold it over for next year, in case
they're still trying to get Clooney and Marguiles to cameo. Just make
any finale to be filmed now and held 'til 2010 a self-contained
two-hour story and it'll work.

-- Rob

[Rob Jensen]

Post by David
from the hollywood reporter
More John Wells at NBC
Episodic orders for 'ER,' 'Police'
By Nellie Andreeva
It will be a longer goodbye for NBC's veteran medical drama "ER,"
whose final 15th season has been extended by three additional
episodes.
As part of NBC's deal with producer Warner Bros. TV and "ER" executive
producer John Wells, NBC also has ordered six episodes from the Wells-
produced new cop drama "Police."
NBC and Warner Bros. had been in intense negotiations over the past
few weeks for a "Police" series pickup.
The network had been asking for a 12-episode midseason order, while
WBTV had been reluctant to deficit such a large order in light of
NBC's recent decision to launch a Jay Leno-fronted talk show in the 10
p.m. hour next fall, which would limit the network's needs for drama
series.
Meanwhile, NBC, WBTV and Wells had also been talking about adding
additional three episodes to the 19-hour final season of "ER," which
has performed in the fall, regularly winning its Thursday 10 p.m.
slot.
It is not clear how the extended season of "ER" will affect new drama
"Kings," which was slated to air in the slot following the "ER" series
finale March 12.
It's possible for "Police" to succeed "ER" Thursdays at 10 p.m. as it
was originally envisioned and for "Kings" to move to another night.

OMG. The show stars Tom Everett Scott (one strike against it), it
already had at least one stoopid name (LAPD -- one strike against it),
and now has a *new* stoopid name (Police, one *more* strike against
it). And now Warner & Wells had to extend ER's last season by three
episodes (not necessarily a bad move in and of itself since I'm an ER
fan) just so that NBC would take half the 12-episode order that Warner
wanted for "That Stoopid LA Police Show."

Can't Warner just take "pre-cancelled" for an answer?

-- Rob